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   Bruce

   12 Apr 2019

   I think the timeframe for fully autonomous vehicles is further out than the three year lease period. I listened to a podcast this week on neural networks and machine learning and my understanding is that while optimism is plentiful at the top of organizations pursuing the technology, it does not extend to developers doing the work. They have deep concerns about safety and reliability. One take away: do not trust machine learning if the proponent cannot explain how the machine learns. My personal experience with auto pilot is that the lane keeping feature on the Model 3 is quite good and very useful in many settings. But I find lane change without confirm unusable. I think the problem is that the technology cannot mange the sheer number of decisions and adjustments required. Driving takes place in a complex and ever changing environment – a space that is dominated by drivers who are not using autopilot. I believe the driving environment is best described as “competitive” and that most drivers adopt a driving style that more or less conforms to their personal appitite for the competitive space. The latest iteration of autopilot without confirm appears to me to be set up to “give way” to more aggressive drivers. I think that default setting makes sense, but it does this by breaking sharply or by swerving back into a lane after initiating a lane change. This is unnerving to passive drivers like me and likely aggravating to aggressive drivers. I do not believe the nuanced adaptions drivers make to an ever changing environment can be learned by a machine in three years. As much as I love my car and support the mission of the company, I think this is another case of Elon getting out over his skis.

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